Is This Trip Dangerous

Almost everyone with whom I've spoken about this trip asks some variation of the questions "Isn't this trip dangerous?" Or "Aren't you frightened?"  The answer is fairly complex, because the answer depends more on the persons comfort with risk levels than my comfort zone. Here is how I approached the issue of safety.

First, I considered what types of risk I might encounter, then tried to give them a rough ranking. And to understand this, I should provide you some definitions. By danger, I mean a risk of serious and incapacitating bodily harm or death. Serious incapacitating bodily harm includes harm from accident or disease. In the calculus, of course, is the fact that I am traveling by motorcycle, in itself a dangerous activity. 

My assessment is that the greatest risk I face is the risk of other drivers. A road accident if you will. I rank the risk of an accident involving another driver higher than road conditions because of the unpredictability of other drivers. The danger of the unpredictability of other drivers is increased, I think, because I am also trying to navigate in unfamiliar territory involving signage in unfamiliar languages, and riding on unfamiliar road surfaces, which are generally narrower with little or no shoulder available for evasive maneuvers. 

After other drivers, I think the greatest risk comes from road conditions. Firstly, because the European and Asian roads are constructed to different design specifications than the roads I usually ride. Moreover, maintenance of the roads is often to a different standard as well. If I choose a a route other than a freeway, it is unpredictable as to road width, shoulders, and integrity of the road surface. Traffic conditions are also different on the various types of roads, with lower classifications often having farm equipment on them, while higher classifications will have large trucks. When I add in the distraction of navigation, road conditions can be dangerous.   By way of example, this is what I expect to see in western Mongolia:

Next comes weather. A rainy day reduces traction and visibility. A hot sunny day increases fatigue and eye strain. A windy day also increases fatigue. All of those factors increase the risk of a serious accident. 

All the foregoing risks and factors may be said to flow naturally from the simple act of riding a motorcycle. I do not dispute that. I am just pointing out that, in my opinion, for this ride, these risks are greater than any others for producing serious bodily injury or death. The risks are managed by wearing proper protective gear all the time, by riding within my limits, both technically and physically, by maintaining a high level of awareness, and knowing and acknowledging when I approach those limits. That is all you can do, and I try to do it all the time. 

With respect to injury and illness, I had an annual physical just before I left, and brought seven months of my medications with me. I have a first aid kit for minor stuff, an anti-diarrhea med, an anti-emetic med, antibiotics, rehydration salts, and two epi-pens. I also brought a trauma kit, and took a wilderness medicine course to learn how to use everything in it and get recertified in first-aid in general. Nick Sheets and Carlos Snead helped define all that was really needed in the trauma kit. 

So how about the danger from robbers and bandits and bad people?  We all know that there are some really bad people in the world, and some of them live and prey along the routes I have chosen.  Stated simply, the risk is of being in the wrong place at the wrong time.  I try to manage that risk by only camping in established campgrounds where there are other campers, or staying in hotels that appear to be respectable in parts of town that don't look like the local murderer hang out nearby.  It's also about situational awareness, avoiding confrontation, de-escalation early in any encounter, and loving my neighbor.  My saddle bags have a kevlar sandwich in the fabric to deter knife cuts, and they are cabled and locked to the bike.  I have PacSafe mesh bags and locks for the dry bags, and the backpack which has my computer etc. goes with me everywhere.  Papers are in my Scott-E-Vest which I wear under my riding jacket.  And as Carlos Snead reminded me, I try to keep my head on a swivel, don't stop for strangers, and remember that just about every item on planet earth is a weapon.

A major concern is the Russian Far East, where the gas stations are remote, and habituated by persons who have been drinking.  I just have to get in, get my gas, and get on the road.  I have a few ideas about how to handle these situations, but I'm sure others have strategies as well.  Please share them with me, because, as to humans who might cause me harm, after Italian drivers, I fear the drunk Russians the most.

So it is just like any road trip on a motorcycle, except longer and on strange roads in countries where I don't read or speak the language, and where driving conventions are vastly different.  I can run into drunks at gas stations in Georgia or Mississippi, or any other State in the Union.  It is the language barrier that increases the risk in a foreign country.

So, it is not that I am frightened, but I am seriously respectful of identifying, classifying, and managing the risks I face.  The above is really a synopsis, as I could go on and on about each risk, the subsets of that risk, strategies for managing the risks and the subsets.  But hopefully the above will give you an idea of what my thinking has been.

And all prayers for safety are always appreciated.